The question of whether China will succeed in curbing its rising CO₂ emissions through the development of renewable energies is crucial, both for the global environment and for combating climate change. As the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, its strategic choices will have significant repercussions on the future of our planet. By investing heavily in green technologies, Beijing hopes to lead by example, but the transition to a sustainable energy model proves complex in the face of persistent economic and industrial challenges. It is essential to question the true scope of these efforts and their ability to transform the Chinese energy landscape within a reasonable timeframe.
The current context of CO₂ emissions in China
In 2024, China is responsible for about 30% of global CO₂ emissions, far exceeding the United States and the European Union. This situation is the result of rapid economic growth and a marked dependence on coal. However, China made a crucial commitment under the Paris Agreement: to peak its CO₂ emissions by 2030.
The turning point of renewable energies
Through a massive adoption of renewable energies, some analysts suggest that China may have already reached this peak of emissions. In 2024, the country’s electricity increasingly comes from solar and wind sources. By May 2024, 12% of Chinese electricity came from solar, up from 7% the previous year, and 11% from wind.
Influence of declining coal use and technological advancements
The reduction in coal use, combined with the rapid growth of solar and wind energies, has significantly helped to slow the rise in emissions. Furthermore, China has curtailed the massive use of oil by electrifying more of its transportation. In June 2024, 45% of passenger cars sold were electric or plug-in hybrids, a figure that could reach 50% by the end of the year.
The impact of the construction sector
The construction sector has long been a lever for revitalizing the Chinese economy. However, the production of cement and steel has recently decreased due to a slowdown in construction. If this trend continues, emissions should also decline. Nonetheless, there is still a latent risk: the coal power plant industry remains underutilized but could be reactivated if economic needs arise.
Future challenges and forecasts
It is crucial to note that this is not the first time analysts have spoken of a peak in emissions in China, only to later observe a new rise. The true assessment of this peak can only be made over time and with continuous observation.
In the longer term, the shift of the Chinese economy towards services and a reduction in construction could stabilize, or even decrease, emissions more sustainably. However, constant efforts are necessary to avoid “spikes and dips” in emissions throughout this decade.
The crucial role of government policies
For the world as a whole to stay within the limits of the least catastrophic climate warming, it is imperative that global emissions decrease significantly this decade. This optimistic vision is possible if governments fulfill their commitments to triple global renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
It is evident that China plays a central role in this global mission. It remains to be seen whether the country will succeed in maintaining this trajectory towards increased reliance on renewable energies and sustainable reductions in its CO₂ emissions.
